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The 20th Century

Predictions, Changes since 1900 & a Century of Photos

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Predictions


Predictions from 1900:

From the now defunct Brooklyn Eagle newspaper in 1900:

They predicted electricity would replace steam power. Garbage removed by motorized vehicles. Women with the right to vote. A tunnel to Manhattan. X-rays. Airplanes

Universal telephone service was a sure thing, the paper said, and mechanized transportation, home offices, electronic versions of newspapers, and even the rise of the suburbs -- an inevitable result of expanded electrical service, the paper said.

Liquid air -- air compressed and cooled until it liquefies -- would provide power cheap enough to end poverty.

From The Ladies Home Journal in 1900:

Pneumatic tubes, instead of wagons, will deliver packages and bundles.

There will be Air-Ships, but they will not successfully compete with surface cars and water vessels for passenger or freight traffic.

Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world..

Man will see around the world. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electronically with screens at the opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span.

Liquid-air refrigerators will keep great quantities of food fresh for long intervals.

Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of a bath.

 

 Quotes from around the turn of the last century:

The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon."
Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.

This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"...I have always consistently opposed high-tension and alternating systems of electric lighting (AC current)...not only on account of danger, but because of their general unreliability and unsuitability for any general system of distribution."
From: Edison, Thomas A. The Dangers of Electric Lighting, North American Review, November, 1889.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
Lord Kelvin, president , Royal Society, 1895.

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899.

``I must confess that my imagination, in spite even of spurring, refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea.''
H.G. Wells, 1901.

"The actual building of roads devoted to motor cars is not for the near future, in spite of many rumors to that effect."
Source: Harpers Weekly, August 2, 1902

``Aerial flight is one of that great class of problems with which man can never cope ... The construction of an aerial vehicle which could carry even a single man from place to place at pleasure, requires the discovery of some new metal or some new force.''
Simon Newcomb, U.S. astronomer, 1903, a few months before the Wright Bros. flight.

Ford Motor Company: In 1903 Henry Ford asked that membership in the Association of Licensed Automobile Manufacturers be granted to the Ford Motor Company. Frederic L. Smith, President of A.L.A.M. at that time, later recalled giving this reply:
"I remember solemnly telling Henry Ford that his outfit was really nothing but an 'assemblage plant.'

"...We hope that Professor Langley will not put his substantial greatness as a scientist in further peril by continuing to waste his time and the money involved, in further airship experiments. Life is short, and he is capable of services to humanity incomparably greater than can be expected to result from trying to fly....For students and investigators of the Langley type there are more useful employments."
Comment in the New York Times one week before the successful flight of the Kitty Hawk by the Wright brothers.

 


From the U.S. Census Bureau

Over the past 100 years:

The nation's population nearly quadrupled.
The number of divorced people grew nearly a hundredfold.
The number of married women in the workforce increased more than 40 times.
The air became nearly 10 times more polluted.

  • In 1900, only 3 million Americans were 65 or older, compared with the 34 million who were that age in 1997.
  • Sixty percent of Americans lived in rural areas in 1900, compared with only 25 percent now.
  • Florida held only 530,000 people in 1900, compared with 14.9 million now; California had 1.5 million residents then, compared with 32.7 million in the most recent census.
  • The average household had 4.8 people in 1900; by 1998, there were only 2.6.
  • American women in 1900 could expect to live to be 48, two years more than the life expectancy for American men back then; by 1997, life expectancy for women was 79 and 74 for men.
  • There were 36 highway traffic fatalities in 1900, compared with 41,967 in 1997.
  • The U.S. government took in $567 million in 1900, compared with $1.7 trillion this year.
  • New York City had the biggest population at the turn of the last century, and has been first in this regard through the 1900s. In 1900 Omaha was larger than Los Angeles.  Now Los Angeles is Number Two and Omaha is not  among the 75 largest U.S. cities.
  • In 1900, about 1 in 10 (11 percent) of all 14- to 17-year-olds were enrolled in high school; in 1997, more than 9 in 10 (93 percent) were in grades 9-12
  • National defense and veteran expenditures were about $300 million in 1900 and $307 billion in 1998.

 


Ten Worst Ideas of the Century

10. Susan B. Anthony Dollar
9. The Red Sox's Selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees
8. Switching the U.S. to Metric
7. MacArthur Defying Truman
6. Leisure suits
5. Breast Implants
4. The Programming Decision to use 2-digit Years Leading to the Y2K Bug
3. Communist Blacklisting
2. Bombing of Pearl Harbor
1. Prohibition


 Then and Now

In 1900 London, New York and Paris were the three largest cities in the world. In 1999 Tokyo, Mexico City and Sao Paulo are the largest.

In 1900 4000 cars were sold worldwide; 54 million in 1998.

150 million barrels of oil produced in 1900; 24 billion in 1998

15 billion acres of forested land worldwide in 1900; 8 billion in 1998

 


 Most Significant U.S. Legislation

  • Women's right to vote
  • Prohibition
  • Social Security Act
  • Marshall Plan
  • GI Bill
  • Civil Rights Act
  • Clean Air Act

 


20th Century Technology Screw-ups

Based on information from the Ig Nobel awards board of governors.

The Titanic (1912): The ship described by its builders as unsinkable, sinks after hitting an iceberg on its maiden voyage.

World War I (1914-18): The war that brought you the tank, the flame-thrower, and poison gas.

The Hindenburg (1937): After a transatlantic crossing, the hydrogen-filled zeppelin explodes into flames as it docks.

Tacoma Narrows Bridge (1940): The designers built their bridge at the same resonant frequency as the high winds whistling through the Narrows of Puget Sound causing it to vibrate like a tuning fork and collapse.

The de Havilland Comet (1952): Only twenty-one of these commercial airliners are built because seven crash due to design flaws that lead to metal fatigue.

China's Great Leap Forward (1958-62): Food production plummets, leading to widespread famine, but the government refuses to accept that the farming practices developed in the Soviet Union are to blame. In the four years it takes for China to concede defeat, somewhere between 30 million and 50 million people die.

Hancock Tower (1970s): The brand new, 60-story high-rise in Boston -- one of the first skyscrapers to be clad in mirrored glass -- begins shedding its 500-pound window panes, one by one. This situation is caused by the movement of the building. Architects have overlooked the fact that similar problems occur in much smaller structures. Sheets of plywood are put up in place of the missing windows, and for years surrounding streets are covered with tunnels to protect pedestrians from falling glass. The Hancock's instability also causes nearby utility lines and foundations to crack, and induces nausea in occupants when heavy winds blow.

Bhopal (1984): The Union Carbide chemical plant at Bhopal, India begins leaking toxic gas killing over 6,000 people.

Challenger (1986): The space shuttle explodes shortly after lifting off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, killing all aboard. The failure of a sealing ring is blamed for the tragedy. Cold weather made sealant material brittle in a sealing ring, causing it to crack prior to launch.

Chernobyl (1986): The Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Russia suffers a partial meltdown due to design deficiencies and sloppy maintenance. More than 30 people die in the immediate aftermath, but the fallout is much greater. Thousands have since developed fatal cancers and severe radiation sickness. The vast expanse of land, water, and air surrounding the plant is still laced with lethal levels of radioactive contaminants.

Passenger plane shot down (1988): The USS Vincennes mistakes an Iran Air passenger jet for an enemy aircraft and shoots it down with a missile. All 290 people on board are killed.

Cold fusion (1989): Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons, chemists at the University of Utah, announce the discovery of "cold fusion" -- a simple, inexpensive way to produce nuclear fusion. Using equipment small enough to fit on a tabletop, the breakthrough process promises a future of inexpensive energy production. The announcement triggers a barrage of scientific research and billions of dollars in financing. With the research done and the money spent, nearly everyone -- except for Fleischmann and Pons -- concludes that cold fusion isn't possible.

Y2K bug (2000): Shows that computers are still controlled by human shortsightedness.

 


Best and Worst of the 20th Century

Best

  • Henry Ford's assembly line
  • Elvis Presley
  • Social legislation
  • Collapse of Communism

Worst

  • Flu epidemic kills millions world-wide
  • Adolph Hitler
  • Two major "hot" wars, one long Cold War

 


Most Useful Inventions of the 20th Century

  • Zipper
  • Phillps-head screw
  • Paperback books
  • Barbecue grill
  • Sneakers
  • The six-pack

Inventions of the 20th century
That will have their biggest impact in the 21st

  • Transistor/solid state electronics
  • Internet (data networking/World Wide Web/e-mail)
  • Space exploration and travel
  • Genetic engineering
  • Mechanized warfare
  • Lasers
  • Wireless telecommunications (cell phone/pager)

 


Predictions for the Next Century
(So if I'm wrong come 2100, sue me!)

  • Ethics and medicine are a big deal. Who lives, who dies, and how long someone should be kept alive. Cloning yourself.
  • Instant world-wide communications & access to mankind's "knowledgebase."  Anything you need to know available instantly.
  • As the assembly line was the 20th century's economic breakthrough the Internet/Artificial Intelligence will be the 21st's.
  • Smart Card.  Unlocks your house, car, carries your medical history and your e-currency, tracks where you go.  Then the Smart Card is replaced by retina scans--no need to ever carry money or an ID again.  This also means the government can track everything you do.
  • Computers built at the atomic level after we run out of space using silicon chips.
  • Virtual entertainment & sports. You become part of the action.

 

 


20th Century in Pictures

 

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Page last updated 04/16/00